Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory Sex, 06-09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601 NM EAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI)
DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) UNDER THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE CURRENT AMSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON
THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T2.7
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND TROUGHING
SOUTHWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE, THUS RESTRICTING WESTWARD OUTFLOW
AND CONSTRAINING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE EAST PROVIDES
VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. TS 14W HAS A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH VALUES OF 10-20 KTS AND CONTINUES TO
TRACK OVER WARM SST (30 CELSIUS) WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH INFLUENCES THE STEERING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR.
AFTER TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
ROUND THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 66, TS 14W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
HONSHU, JAPAN, NEAR TOKYO. THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE SLOW THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KTS
BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR.  THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL
AND TOWARDS PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TS 14W WILL WEAKEN TO 65 KTS AFTER
LANDFALL.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, EXITING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SST, TRANSFORMING INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN